Thanks to David Roberts in a recent New York Times article, I now understand what is a MICROMORT! This is a useful comparative measurement of risk of dying from any event. It is translated into the ‘one in a million’ chance of dying…in other words-a MICROMORT.
For example, in the United States, one can compare the risk of dying from an accident on any given day. This is given a value of 1 MicroMort. Compare this to having anesthesia which is a 5. The chance of dying from skydiving is remarkably only 7 but giving birth is 210.
Bottom line, the average American risks one micromort per day. This means a 1 in 1,000,000 chance of dying from non-natural causes. Examples are as bizarre as an asteroid hitting, the occurrence of an earthquake, (remember San Fransisco and the overpasses not so long ago!), or a smash up on the highway in one’s car.
Now let’s apply this to Covid-19, say in New York, an easily acknowledged high-risk area for this Pandemic.
There are about 24,000 excess deaths in NY over a given peak period this year than normally would be the case.
In micromort language, this means 50 additional micromorts per day in NY because of this Covid-19.
Remarkably that translates into twice the likely-hood of dying than there was in serving in the military in Afghanistan in 2010 which was considered a very deadly year!
BUT worse, infection by the virus immediately changes these odds! Upwards!
Assuming a one percent infection rate, this translates to 10,000 micromorts. Meaning this approximates to the possibility of dying while trying to ascend Mount Everest!
Ironically, I’ve been comparing coronavirus to an extreme oxygen shortage, as if one is dumped off at the final staging post on an Everest climb.
In micromort language, this means 50 additional micromorts per day in NY because of this Covid-19.
But of major concern to older persons is that this risk is a factor for the entire population with an average age of only 38.
The older you are the higher the fatality rate to the tune of 10 times more.
There are other contributing factors depending upon individual vulnerability.
We have seen how the virus can wipe out the inhabitants of Old Age Homes. These institutions harbouring not only inhabitants with multiple issues but those issues are compounded sedentary lifestyles, lack of sunlight/vitamin D, and inappropriate foods with a nutritional deficit.
David aptly describes these risks as approximating the likelihood of dying at some point during four Royal Air Force bombing missions over Germany during World War II.
My Uncle Victor was a base commander in Southern England back then, from whence these crews sortied to Germany during that war. I know only too acutely from his narratives how poor those chances were. Those brave boys were eyeing almost certain death.
This similarly applies to this insidious and discriminating virus, that singles out older and compromised victims. CoronaVirus Micromorts Mortality Risks Surprising.
