Choosing who is to die is an extremely hard choice. That is an acute situation with pandemics and is playing out in Italy at this very moment as they deal with Corona Virus Covid-19. This goes way back in our societal memory. Includes the Black Death of the 14th century and before. When looking at the current pandemic it is good to have context.
It is a quantum leap from recent epidemic scares. The Black Death spread rapidly throughout Europe. At the English Channel shores, that ‘trench’ of water between Europe and Britain was but a ‘hiccup’.
There was shipping, and enough of it to ensure the rats with their biting fleas, not only came aboard but disembarked the other side.
These days the host is human. To ground all flights and shut down on all shipping is perhaps whistful thinking unless the bureaucracies involved moved!
The WHO is more than bureaucratic and caters to not only political but financial interests. There are some who decry that it is outright corrupt.
The unilateral but belated targeting of China entries by the States was decried as racist. So the leaking sieve is a reality and result of human nature!
The Black Death destroyed up to 60% of the then greater European population. It lasted some thirteen years.
In terms of the then world population of some 300 million, it may have approached 30%. It took almost two centuries to catch up to the pre-1348 population numbers.
The percentage of deaths from this pandemic different. It depends upon which strain of CoVid-19, as the Wuhan immediate version seemed more virulent.
As for that matter so does the strain in Iran. It may range from one to four percent of those infected. However the virus seems to have the character of change or mutation. This could
But really the only reason for clamping down on populations and embargoing entries across borders is to SLOW the rate of infection. And the reason for that is to prevent a complete catastrophe of overwhelmed medical services.
Hospitals generally are at capacity and can hardly cater to normal demand. Increasing services for the specialized isolation protocol of the Covid 19 means making hard choices.
Basically choosing who is to die is already a hard choice. Ventilators are grossly short on supply with little likelihood of much improvement short term. What about a conventional patient requiring a ventilator?
There is a fight between traditional critical demands, and selection of even just age as a decision-maker.
That 80 year old is statistically much more likely to die anyway, so one can hear the Pavlovian medical reaction of not providing the ventilator for that senior!
The actual underlying health is not even considered. Simply the age! It comes down to a number!
It’s an exponential increase in actual patient numbers that are driving these life and death dilemmas. The enforced isolation of persons is merely to SLOW the inevitable percentage infection rate. It is to shallow the statistical curve to avoid mass graves and complete medical chaos and carnage.
I read somewhere that continuing to fold paper 56 times will enable it to be thick enough to reach the sun!
There is a parallel with the corona virus covid-19. 2 infecting 4 then infecting 8 suddenly it is 16, then thirty-two. Millions are just a few more steps away!
It is this problem that is the essence of a pandemic. There is unlikely to be an effective timely vaccine. The survivors will parallel the Black Death.
They were the stronger and resulting in distinctly living longer and healthier from an analysis of corpses from the then London era span. There are going to be too many deaths and it will span time. As much as two years! Corona Virus Relentless Mathematically, Numbers Soon Unlimited!
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